Rashid Hasan MustafaZadeh

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What will Aliyev and Sargsyan discuss? — Expert opinion

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Май 2016
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«In such a paradigm, Armenia is doomed to constantly bluff, threaten and then return to the negotiating table with weakened position»

A political expert on Caucasus Andrei Epifantsev talked about it, Admiral.Az reports.

According to him, today the likelihood of Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting, which is in the center of mass media, is not at least absolute.

«It is even unlikely, because of the fact that the purpose of the meeting is not clear, since the agenda of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the current circumstances are completely different — Sargsyan, if the meeting will happen, he will be definitely talking about the implementation of its own preconditions — guarantee non-use of force, investigation of April’s conflict and foundation of the mechanism for investigations of such conflicts; while Aliev will be talking about the profanation of negotiations by Armenia and real steps for the regulation of this conflict, giving back to Azerbaijan territories occupied by Armenia in 1992-1994, so in the present circumstances, this dialogue has no meaning». — said the expert.

He believes that the dialogue is required to start, but not now, for example, a few weeks later.

«Right now, it is too early because of the statement of Sargsyan concerning the implementation of his preconditions. It is clear that the preconditions will not be realised and Armenia will come back to the negotiating table, because it is the only way to save the status quo which is vital for Armenia. The question is that such a return at their own unfulfilled, «concrete» circumstances will be another weakening of its position.Yerevan does not have enough power as well as Russia to independently solve the problem of the disputed territories, diplomatic, military and any other actions.

«Moreover, with each such step the possibility of such maneuvers of the Armenian authorities narrowes. There is a deadlock: To keep the situation in the former state is impossible, and there is no other way to move because public opinion is incredibly aggressively to any territorial concessions on Karabakh. The meeting between presidents today would be disadvantageous not only for Armenia, but personally for Sargsyan.»-. the analyst believes.

It needs to be noted that the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan will meet today in the Austrian capital, the first personal meeting after the recent deterioration of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Negotiators at the meeting will be foreign ministries of Russian, the United States and France — co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is the central international platform for the settlement of the conflict. All parties have confirmed their arrival in Vienna.

Rashid Mustafazadeh


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